overconfidence – Stuff on my mind that you can read.

Overconfidence Can Put You at Risk

Overconfidence isn’t a personality flaw; it’s a measurable bias with real costs in finance, driving, medicine, and everyday decision-making.

Confidence feels like preparation, but in high-stakes domains the gap between feeling ready and being ready is where most failures actually happen.

In disasters, the people most likely to make fatal mistakes aren’t the unprepared. They’re the ones who think they know what they’re doing.